# Systemic Capital Flow Risk: Concentration and Closure Counterfactuals

## Panel A: USD-Weighted Residual Variance Concentration

| Rank | Country | Resid SD (pp) | GDP ($bn) | CA ($bn) | Var Share (%) | Cum (%) |
|---:|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1 | USA | 1.43 | 22686 | -657 | 45.6 | 45.6 |
| 2 | CHN | 1.46 | 15256 | +253 | 37.5 | 83.1 |
| 3 | GBR | 2.44 | 3002 | -97 | 2.0 | 85.2 |
| 4 | RUS | 2.70 | 1739 | +82 | 1.9 | 87.1 |
| 5 | JPN | 1.02 | 4713 | +168 | 1.6 | 88.7 |
| 6 | IND | 2.08 | 2932 | -31 | 1.4 | 90.1 |
| 7 | IRL | 10.08 | 440 | +18 | 1.1 | 91.2 |
| 8 | DEU | 1.12 | 4037 | +278 | 0.9 | 92.0 |
| 9 | AUS | 3.04 | 1496 | -15 | 0.8 | 92.9 |
| 10 | SAU | 4.42 | 861 | +24 | 0.8 | 93.6 |
| 11 | ITA | 2.13 | 2069 | +34 | 0.7 | 94.4 |
| 12 | NOR | 5.87 | 444 | +56 | 0.5 | 94.9 |
| 13 | CAN | 1.96 | 1849 | -29 | 0.5 | 95.4 |
| 14 | BRA | 1.76 | 1891 | -43 | 0.4 | 95.8 |
| 15 | FRA | 0.91 | 2764 | -14 | 0.4 | 96.1 |

| | **Effective N** | | | | **2.9** | HHI=3504 |

## Panel B: Flow Concentration (2024)

| Metric | Value |
|:---|---:|
| Total absolute CA flows | $3933bn |
| Total surpluses | $2230bn |
| Total deficits | $-1703bn |
| US share of global deficits | 66.6% |
| US share of absolute CA flows | 28.8% |
| CHN+DEU+JPN share of global surpluses | 39.6% |
| Top 5 surplus share | 50.6% |
| Top 5 deficit share | 81.3% |

## Panel C: Closure Counterfactuals

### Us Closure

*Flow removed: $1134bn (28.8% of absolute CA flows)*

| Surplus Country | Surplus ($bn) | Stranded ($bn) |
|:---|---:|---:|
| CHN | 424 | 282 |
| DEU | 267 | 178 |
| JPN | 193 | 128 |
| TWN | 123 | 82 |
| NLD | 122 | 81 |
| KOR | 99 | 66 |
| IRL | 99 | 66 |
| SGP | 96 | 64 |
| NOR | 83 | 55 |
| RUS | 62 | 41 |

### Chn+Deu+Jpn Closure

*Flow removed: $884bn (22.5% of absolute CA flows)*

| Deficit Country | Deficit ($bn) | Lost Financing ($bn) |
|:---|---:|---:|
| USA | -1134 | 449 |
| GBR | -123 | 49 |
| BRA | -61 | 24 |
| AUS | -35 | 14 |
| ROU | -32 | 13 |
| IND | -31 | 12 |
| EGY | -21 | 8 |
| GRC | -18 | 7 |
| PHL | -18 | 7 |
| NZL | -16 | 6 |

### Deu Closure

*Flow removed: $267bn (6.8% of absolute CA flows)*

| Deficit Country | Deficit ($bn) | Lost Financing ($bn) |
|:---|---:|---:|
| USA | -1134 | 136 |
| GBR | -123 | 15 |
| BRA | -61 | 7 |
| AUS | -35 | 4 |
| ROU | -32 | 4 |
| IND | -31 | 4 |
| EGY | -21 | 2 |
| GRC | -18 | 2 |
| PHL | -18 | 2 |
| NZL | -16 | 2 |

## Panel D: System-Level Aggregate

| Year | Aggregate Residual ($bn) | N Countries |
|---:|---:|---:|
| 2015 | 1098 | 186 |
| 2016 | 1297 | 186 |
| 2017 | 1353 | 186 |
| 2018 | 1272 | 186 |
| 2019 | 1634 | 185 |
| 2020 | 4250 | 185 |
| 2021 | 2630 | 186 |
| 2022 | 1900 | 185 |
| 2023 | 2361 | 184 |
| 2024 | 2739 | 182 |

| **System SD** | **$972bn** | |

*Panel A: Residual variance from PanelGLS (ca_gdp ~ Z + controls, excl KAOPEN), weighted by GDP² to convert to USD. 2015–present. Effective N = 1/HHI of variance shares.*
*Panel B: Cross-section flow concentration. Panel C: Proportional reallocation assumption — if node closes, its counterparties lose financing pro rata. Panel D: Sum of USD-weighted residuals across all countries per year.*